Brexit: Tragedy or comedy of errors?
By Andrew SHENG,AFP
July 5, 2016, 12:24 am TWN
Last week, the world woke up to find that the British actually voted 51.9 percent in favor of an exit from the European Union (EU).
World stock markets lost over US$3 trillion in market value, with the credit rating agencies downgrading the UK from AAA to AA, making it more costly for British companies and government to raise funds. The pound sterling depreciated sharply to its lowest level in years.
What Will Happen Next?
Brexit was technically a referendum on whether the United Kingdom (UK) wanted to remain or leave the EU. The referendum was not a legal necessity, but arose from an election promise by Prime Minister David Cameron because his party was split on this issue. But once the UK voted to leave, Cameron had to resign, creating a leadership crisis in the Conservative Party. Two contenders are emerging after Boris Johnson, the former Mayor of London, who successfully led the Leave movement, opted out. Simultaneously, the opposition Labour Party is also in disarray because its Parliamentary members successfully passed a no-confidence vote against leader Jeremy Corbyn for weak leadership.
Brexit was such a shock that everyone has an opinion, often very funny. Jean-Claude Juncker, President of the European Commission lamented, "The British vote has cut off one of our wings, as it were, but we're still flying." One wit from Scotland commented that instead of Britannia rules the waves, "Britannia waives the rules."
Confusion rules, because Brexit is a divorce. Brexit was only a declaration of intention to divorce, but divorce papers have yet to be filed — technically a formal notice to leave under Article 50 of the EU Treaty. Only the new Prime Minister, to be elected by September, can file the divorce papers and start negotiating how to split the family jewels, if any.
Can the Divorcee Survive on Her Own?
Brexit was not a rational economic decision. Britain pays roughly 0.5 percent of her annual GDP into EU coffers, but gets benefits back to the tune of roughly 1 percent of the GDP. London would be a huge loser. If Britain is out, then Paris and Frankfurt would happily take over the Euro business. London jobs and property prices will be at stake.
So far European reactions reflect those of different family members in the divorce. German Chancellor Merkel was more cautious, preferring to wait for the next British move. French President Hollande called for an early exit. And Italian Prime Minister called for more EU aid for ailing Italian banks.
The remaining Europeans have two main choices — one is to remain cautious and muddle through. The other is to treat Brexit as a wake-up call and complete all the reforms that would bind Europe more firmly together. Muddling through is not an option, because there are urgent problems of Ukraine, immigration, imbalanced and anaemic growth, plus fragile banks. Small wonder that fund manager George Soros simultaneously placed a short-sell bet against Deutschebank shares, and going public on his worry whether after Brexit, Europe is on a path to disintegration.
http://www.chinapost.com.tw/commentary/china-post/special-/2016/07/05/471227/Brexit-Tragedy.htm
Structure of the Lead：
WHO- British
WHEN- last week
WHAT- exit from the European Union (EU)
WHY- not given
WHERE- not given
HOW- not given
Keywords：
1. downgrading：降級
2. depreciate：貶值
3. referendum：公民投票權
4. split：分裂
5. contender：競爭者，爭奪者
6. opt out：退出，辭職
7. disintegration：瓦解
8. disarray：混亂
9. intention：意圖
10. cautious：謹慎的
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